Unemployment compared to wage growth in the USA economics thesis 1945 and 2018.
The Laffer curve is one of the main theoretical constructs of supply-side economics, the idea that lower tax rates when tax level is too high will actually boost government revenue because of higher economic growth. The term «supply-side economics» was thought for some time to have been coined by journalist Jude Wanniski in 1975, but according to Robert D. Supply-side economics developed in response to the stagflation of the 1970s. However, what most separates supply-side economics as a modern phenomenon is its argument in favor of low tax rates primarily for collective and notably working-class reasons, rather than traditional ideological ones. Classical liberals opposed taxes because they opposed government, taxation being the latter’s most obvious form. John Maynard Keynes, the founder of Keynesianism, summarized Say’s law as «supply creates its own demand». He turned Say’s law on its head in the 1930s by declaring that demand creates its own supply.
In 1978, Jude Wanniski published The Way the World Works in which he laid out the central thesis of supply-side economics and detailed the failure of high tax rate progressive income tax systems and United States monetary policy under Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter in the 1970s. This led supply-siders to advocate large reductions in marginal income and capital gains tax rates to encourage greater investment, which would produce more supply. Jude Wanniski and many others advocate a zero capital gains rate. The increased aggregate supply should result in increased aggregate demand, hence the term «supply-side economics». Supply-side economics holds that increased taxation steadily reduces economic activity within a nation and discourages investment. Taxes act as a type of trade barrier or tariff that causes economic participants to revert to less efficient means of satisfying their needs.
As such, higher taxation leads to lower levels of specialization and lower economic efficiency. The idea is said to be illustrated by the Laffer curve. Supply-side economists have less to say on the effects of deficits and sometimes cite Robert Barro’s work that states that rational economic actors will buy bonds in sufficient quantities to reduce long-term interest rates. Many early proponents argued that the size of the economic growth would be significant enough that the increased government revenue from a faster-growing economy would be sufficient to compensate completely for the short-term costs of a tax cut and that tax cuts could in fact cause overall revenue to increase. Some contemporary economists do not consider supply-side economics a tenable economic theory, with Alan Blinder calling it an «ill-fated» and perhaps «silly» school on the pages of a 2006 textbook.
Tax cuts rarely pay for themselves. My reading of the academic literature leads me to believe that about one-third of the cost of a typical tax cut is recouped with faster economic growth. The extreme promises of supply-side economics did not materialize. President Reagan argued that because of the effect depicted in the Laffer curve, the government could maintain expenditures, cut tax rates, and balance the budget.
Government revenues fell sharply from levels that would have been realized without the tax cuts. Supply side proponents Trabandt and Thesis argue that «static scoring overestimates the revenue loss for labor and capital tax cuts» and that «dynamic scoring» is a better predictor for the effects of tax cuts. Income inequality can be measured both pre- and after-tax. There is no consensus on the effects of income tax cuts on pre-tax income inequality, although economics 2013 study indicated a strong correlation between how much top marginal tax rates were cut and greater pre-tax inequality across many countries. However, an important side effect of income tax cuts in the U.
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Federal income taxes are progressive, meaning that higher income tax rates are levied on higher levels of income. Income taxes are distinct from payroll taxes, which all workers pay. For example, the Tax Policy Center evaluated a detailed supply-side tax cut proposal from presidential candidate Jeb Bush in 2015. Their conclusion was that the proposal would both increase deficits dramatically and worsen after-tax income inequality. Supply-side economists seek a cause and effect relationship between lowering marginal tax rates and economic expansion.
Gene Smiley at the Foundation for Economic Education explains: «The share of income taxes paid by the higher net income tax classes fell as tax rates were raised. With the reduction in rates in the twenties, higher-income taxpayers reduced their sheltering of income and the number of returns and share of income taxes paid by higher-income taxpayers rose». In the United States, commentators frequently equate supply-side economics with Reaganomics. The fiscal policies of Republican Ronald Reagan were largely based on supply-side economics. Reagan made supply-side economics a household phrase and promised an across-the-board reduction in income tax rates and an even larger reduction in capital gains tax rates. Switching from an earlier monetarist policy, Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker began a policy of tighter monetary policies such as lower money supply growth to break the inflationary psychology and squeeze inflationary expectations out of the economic system.
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